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Home > NFL Picks > Week 5 NFL Pick: Covers betting the ‘Under’ in the Chargers vs. Giants game on October 8th 2017

Week 5 NFL Pick: Covers betting the ‘Under’ in the Chargers vs. Giants game on October 8th 2017

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Giants
Week 5 NFL Over-Under Pick: Under 45 points (October 8th 2017)

My clients and I cashed a winning bet on the Giants Over the total last week, yet I’m recommending a play on the Under here.  What gives?  Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last week:

“Facing Tampa’s banged up defense, Case Keenum looked like a pro bowler: 369 passing yards on 11.1 per attempts, 3 TD’s without an INT and a QB rating of 142.1 for the game.  That, folks, is Tampa Bay’s stop unit right now.   DT Chris Baker is dealing with a nasty bout of the flu.  CB Brent Grimes has a bad shoulder.  LB Kwon Alexander is out with a hamstring injury.  DT Gerald McCoy has a bum ankle.  DE Noah Spence is playing with a dislocated shoulder.  LB Lavonte David turned his ankle.

DE Jacquies Smith has been out since preseason.  Safety TJ Ward is dealing with an injured hip.  Defensive coordinator Mike Smith: “Unfortunately, we’ve got some guys that are down, but nobody is going to feel sorry for us — that’s for sure.”

“Meanwhile The Giants defense was completely gassed by the fourth quarter at Philly last week; only the field for nearly 80 snaps in the heat.  This stop unit is not fresh – the G-Men have been losing the time of possession battle on a weekly basis – and they’ll be tested by the explosive Bucs offense in the heat and humidity of late afternoon in Tampa Bay.”

So what happened?  Despite red zone failures and missed field goals for both teams, the game still went Over the total.  And now, the betting markets have done what they do – react to last week’s games.  Lo and behold, this week’s Giants total is even higher than last week’s total.  Yet the conditions here are very different.  The Chargers defense is NOT banged up like Tampa’s D was.  And the Giants defense won’t be gassed the same way this week; only the field for only 62 snaps last Sunday, without Florida heat and humidity that wears defenses down as the game progresses.

LA has all the makings of an Under team right now, despite their playmaking weapons on the outside.   The Chargers pass rush, led by last year’s #1, Joey Bosa, has been strong; bad news for Eli Manning playing behind a very weak offensive line.  I’m not expecting the G-men to control the line of scrimmage here, bad news for their ‘hit or miss’ offense.

Meanwhile, the Chargers offense has looked flat out broken for first month of the season.  Like that of the Giants, LA’s offensive line play has been bottom tier, unable to generate any holes for their running backs.  That’s put all the pressure on Philip Rivers, whose accuracy has really declined over the past two seasons.  Rivers is very comfortable just chucking the ball up towards his receivers and expecting them to make a play on the football.  That strategy hasn’t worked all year and it’s not likely to work against the Giants rock solid secondary.  Expect a field goal fest here!  Take the Under.

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