Wisconsin vs. Penn State
Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions +14.5 -110 odds (November 26th 2011)
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The 19th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2 SU, 3-7 ATS, 1-9-1 O/U) got a huge win in Week 12 by beating Ohio State 20-14 in their second game since the firing of beloved head coach Joe Paterno and they’ll face a stiff test this week when they visit the 12th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U). The Nittany Lions have played very well amidst a sea of adversity recently wile posting a respectable 2-2-1 ATS over the last five games. Penn State has a hellacious defense that ranks third in the nation in points allowed at just 13.0 per game. Wisconsin bounced back from its Week 11 loss to beat Illinois 28-17 despite failing to cover the spread as 14.5-point road favorites. The Badgers have scored at least 28 points in each of the last three weeks while scoring a combined 104 points in wins over Purdue and Minnesota in week 10 and 11.

The good news for Touthouse college football bettors that like Penn State in this one is the fact that Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS over its last five games and just 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Nittany Lions. Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Analysis: The aforementioned key head-to-head trends would suggest that the Badgers have a chance to cover the spread in this matchup, but I’m not buying it. I like Penn State’s defense in this one and I think they’ve got something to play for and that’s pride if nothing else. If Penn State can reach the 20-point plateau in this one, I think their stingy defense will find a way to make a win stand up in this one. If the spread were a few points less, I’d be more hesitant, but with a two-touchdown spread to start the game, I like the Nittany Lions to cover the spread in a closer-than-expected loss.